Yesterday, we took a quick look at how the offseason has gone for the bottom half (by last season’s standings) of the Metropolitan Division. Today, we’ll take a similar look at the four teams in the top half.
Enjoy!
Carolina Hurricanes
Their offseason, in one sentence: They’ve had a low-key offseason that sets them up to mostly run it back with the same team.
Their biggest addition: Jesper Fast appears to pretty clearly be the best of the slim pickings here. He’s coming off of a very good year in which he was one of Artemi Panarin’s most common linemates during the latter’s Hart Trophy-caliber season. He’s not lighting up the scoresheet or anything, but he’s a versatile middle-six winger who fits in the kind of archetype the ‘Canes seem to like.
Their biggest loss: Justin Williams. It’s close, given that he was only with the team from mid-January onward last season, but the long-time-ago Flyer has been at the heart of Carolina’s steps forward over the past couple of seasons, and while Carolina has the depth to come close to replacing him in the lineup, he’ll certainly be missed.
Other stuff they did: They lost a few third-pair-caliber guys on defense (Joel Edmundson, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Sami Vatanen who I thought was good but he’s still unsigned so what do I know?), though the impact of that feels like it’ll be minimal given the Canes’ embarrassment of riches across their defensive lineup. Not much else outside of a draft that analysts seemed to like, but that’s more a long-term question.
Are they better or worse right now than when they started the offseason? Well, functionally, their lineup change this summer was Fast for Williams. I would probably take Williams if you asked me who I wanted on my team if I was trying to win a hockey game tomorrow, but at his age who knows what this year would’ve looked like if he’d hung around. So … the same? If I have to pick a side, worse, but really, they’re the same.
The long-term outlook: Pretty good. Their prospect pool is solid — and they’re sixth in Corey Pronman’s organizational rankings in The Athletic — but it’s the fact that most of their best talent is either in the early-to-middle part of its prime or is yet to even get to that part that makes them feel like a threat for years to come. What they were this past season — fourth in the Metro, sixth in the East — seems like a baseline for them over the next couple of years, and it wouldn’t be shocking if they moved further up the ranks.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Their offseason, in one sentence: They have been ACTIVE in an attempt to stay afloat and contend while their two stars are still on top of their game, and, uh, I don’t think it’s working.
Their biggest addition: Probably Mike Matheson, who is a fine enough NHL defenseman that’s drastically overpaid for what he does. He’s been the Penguins’ biggest acquisition on defense, where they definitely need some help, but they gave up a still-productive Patric Hornqvist for a No. 4-5 defenseman who’s under contract for six more years.
Their biggest loss: Well, I would go on a soliloquy about how much I’m going to miss Jack Johnson, who the Penguins bought out with three years remaining on a five-year deal that everyone except Jim Rutherford seemed to know was bad the moment it was signed. But, as we reviewed yesterday, he’s found a new home elsewhere in the Metropolitan Division, so we can spare our tears. Anywho, other than that? Hornqvist is an important loss. They also sent Matt Murray to Ottawa, though he became their second goaltender as last season went on and Tristan Jarry established himself.
Other stuff they did: They added Cody Ceci.
cody Ceci more like Caca Peepee
— feebs (@FeebleMath) October 25, 2016
They also went aggressively hard to re-acquire Kasperi Kapanen, coughing up their first-round pick this year and prospect Filip Hallander to do so. They salary-dumped Nick Bjugstad onto the Wild, and let some other bit pieces (Justin Schultz, Conor Sheary) walk to free agency. They look to be pretty much wrapped up; what we see with them at this point is probably what we’re going to get.
Are they better or worse right now than when they started the offseason? For all the polite mocking of the Pens’ offseason that has taken place over the past month or so, I don’t think they’re significantly worse. They’re probably about the same; I don’t love their adds given the cost that went into them, and I think they’ll miss Hornqvist, but they had some real addition by subtraction with Johnson and Schultz that should help. They should still be a reasonably comfortable playoff team next year as long as Jarry doesn’t take a big step back. But is that enough? Is that even close to enough? Again, it seems like Rutherford is really loading up to try and mount another run with this team, and the end result of his moves is a team that is probably about as good as it was last year, with even less cap flexibility and long-term talent than it had before. Which isn’t much, given …
The long-term outlook: Ouch. The Pens are dead last in Pronman’s org rankings; they were 30th back in August prior to trading Hallander, and without a first-round pick to add to the group, it wasn’t surprising to see them fall into last. The Crosby/Malkin era has been very good to Pittsburgh, and knowing their luck, they might become bad enough within two years to fall ass-backwards into first place in the Shane Wright lottery. But short of a jolt of talent like that, Pittsburgh is going to need to do some serious work to stay in contention as soon as Crosby and Malkin dip even a little bit from where they are now.
Philadelphia Flyers
(I wasn’t going to write about the Flyers, because really you can do that elsewhere on this site, but someone in the comments of yesterday’s post asked me to and I can’t live knowing I’m making our commenters sad.)
Their offseason, in one sentence: They lost a defenseman and added another one and have otherwise been quiet.
Their biggest addition: Erik Gustafsson. Not the one they had before, the other one, who had a couple of real good years with Chicago but is coming off of a less-than-good year between the Blackhawks and Flames. He can add some offense and puck-moving to their team from the blue line, giving them another option in that role if Shayne Gostisbehere continues to struggle to regain his old form.
Their biggest loss: Matt Niskanen. The Flyers’ nominal number-two defenseman from last season surprised everyone by retiring with one year left on his contract. Niskanen was alongside defenseman Ivan Provorov for the youngster’s best season of his career to date, and he played a big role on the Flyers’ much-improved penalty kill. He wasn’t great in the playoffs, but he’s tough to replace.
Other stuff they did: Gustafsson was their only NHL-level add. They lost a few depth forwards, some of whom they will probably miss (Tyler Pitlick) and some of whom they will probably not (Derek Grant, Nate Thompson).
Are they better or worse right now than when they started the offseason? Worse. Not drastically so, but even if you ignore the forward changes (which is reasonable, because those guys should be somewhere between “replaceable” and “easily upgradeable”), Niskanen is a big loss and the Flyers haven’t adequately replaced him.
The long-term outlook: It’s good, but there are still balls in the air here that will determine if it can become great. Their defense is set up well for the long-run, and in net they’re as stable as they’ve been in literal decades thanks to Carter Hart. The big question is what happens as their top-of-the-lineup forward talent continues to get older, as the long-term replacements for those guys aren’t clear. Pronman ranked them 12th in his org rankings, but he aptly pointed out that the long-term outcome of Nolan Patrick “could swing the outcome of their future significantly.” If he’s able to come back and keep progressing even into something close to what they were hoping when they drafted him, they’re in a very good position.
Washington Capitals
Their offseason, in one sentence: They added a new coach, swapped out one old goalie for another, older goalie, and shuffled around some pieces on defense.
Their biggest addition: Peter Laviolette. The Caps fired old coach Todd Rierden after a season where they looked out of sorts for months before the pause and got run over by the Islanders in the first round of the tournament. Laviolette, who was fired by Nashville midway through last season, will get a chance to work his first-year magic with a team that looks like it’s got the horses for one or two more big swings at a(nother) title.
Their biggest loss: Radko Gudas! Just kidding it’s Braden Holtby. Their long-time netminder is coming off of a down-year, and with Ilya Samsonov waiting in the wings, it was time for them to let him take his talents elsewhere.
Other stuff they did: In terms of personnel, the big-name add for Washington was Henrik Lundqvist, who the Caps got on a reasonable one-year deal and who should be able to be a good safety net for Samsonov if he can bounce back from a turbulent year for him with the Rangers. Otherwise, they made some defensive changes, chief among them losing the aforementioned Gudas (whose lone year in D.C. didn’t go great) and adding Justin Schultz for two years at $4 million per year as well as Trevor van Riemsdyk on a one-year deal. They didn’t bring back deadline rental Ilya Kovalchuk, either.
Are they better or worse right now than when they started the offseason? Pretty similar. Swap one goalie for another, change some defensemen, basically are where they are when they started.
The long-term outlook: It’s in about the same spot as the Pens’, which is to say, yikes. Their draft haul, headlined by potential Flyers target Hendrix Lapierre, pushed them from 31st in Pronman’s rankings to 30th, so, they’re moving on up in the world. But in any case, they’ve been in win-now mode for a long time and have prioritized the short-term over the long-term as such, and unless Samsonov is other-worldly, they’re going to be in a tough spot when the likes of Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom start to fall off from the perches they’re on now.
