FOLKS I HAVE TO SAY I AM STILL PRETTY EXCITED ABOUT LAST NIGHT’S HOCKEY OUTING BOY WAS THAT SOMETHING OR WHAT
And of course, beyond the general heroics of Shayne Gostisbehere and Claude Giroux teaming up to give the Flyers a win with 13 seconds left in the game, the Flyers’ win last night over the Winnipeg Jets gave them two huge points in the playoff race to keep up with the likes of the Detroit Red Wings and Boston Bruins.
Here’s how things are shaping up in the Eastern Conference playoff chase with Monday night’s games behind us.
What happened last night?
- FLYERS WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
- Oh also the Red Wings beat the Sabres. Looked pretty dominant for most of the game and went up 3-0 with three minutes left in the game, and yet still almost managed to give it away, as the Sabres scored two goals in the game’s final minutes to make it close. They wouldn’t finish that comeback out, though, as the Wings held on for a 3-2 win. Would’ve been a wonderful break for the Flyers, but we probably should not have been counting on the Wings to drop one to the Sabres anyways.
How things look now:
Here’s where the four teams in the race for the East’s last three spots with last night’s games accounted for.
| (Standing) Team | Points | Games Remaining | ROW | Remaining Strength of Schedule (Points %) | Teams in Playoff Race* Left On Schedule | Back-To-Backs Left On Schedule |
| (W1) NY Islanders | 89 | 8 | 36 | 57.8% | 5 | 2 |
| (A3) Boston | 88 | 6 | 36 | 56.9% | 3 | 0 |
| (W2) Philadelphia | 87 | 7 | 35 | 58.3% | 5 | 3 |
| (W3) Detroit | 87 | 6 | 36 | 54.4% | 4 | 3 |
* “Teams In Playoff Race” includes any team in or within two points of a playoff spot; in other words, the sixteen teams currently in playoff spots plus Detroit.
The Flyers and Red Wings’ wins help them keep pace with one another and also allow both teams to pick up some ground on Boston. How does this shape each team’s playoff odds?
| (Standing) Team | Odds (SportsClubStats) | Odds (hockey-reference) | Odds (Hockeyviz) | Odds (Moneypuck) |
| (W1) NY Islanders | 97.7% (-0.8%) | 96.5% (-0.3%) | 96% (-1%) | 96.77% (-1.09%) |
| (A3) Boston | 80.8% (-5.6%) | 78.2% (-8.0%) | 71% (-7%) | 74.36% (-6.58%) |
| (W2) Philadelphia | 70.9% (+2.6%) | 70.3% (+4.2%) | 75% (+3%) | 73.61% (+3.22%) |
| (W3) Detroit | 50.5% (+4.3%) | 54.8% (+4.7%) | 59% (+6%) | 55.19% (+4.85%) |
The Flyers’ win unsurprisingly gives them a boost, though it’s mitigated a bit by the Wings’ win. And both of them gain ground at the expense of the Bruins, who certainly didn’t have a great Monday night.
Games that matter tonight:
The Flyers are off tonight as they get ready to face the President’s Trophy-winning Capitals on Wednesday night. But they’ve got some games tonight to concern themselves with. In particular:
- Detroit is right back at it as they head to Montreal to face the Canadiens. They managed to beat those same Canadiens just last week and are a better team, but coming in on a back-to-back against a Montreal team that hasn’t played since Saturday is still no easy task. A Detroit loss would be oustanding, and it certainly could happen.
- Boston, meanwhile, will go to New Jersey to face the Devils. Tough to expect a ton from New Jersey, but it’d still be nice to get some unexpected help from one of the Flyers’ division rivals.
- And the Islanders will host Carolina, three days after beating them in Raleigh. That first wild card spot is potentially still within reach (likely pending the result of the Flyers’ final game of the year in Brooklyn), so a Hurricanes win could help matters.
How much do tonight’s games matter?
Here are the projected changes in the Flyers’ playoff odds based on potential results tonight.
| DET @ MTL | DET Reg W | DET OT W | DET SO W | MTL Reg W | MTL OT W | MTL SO W |
| Sportsclubstats | -6.8% | -6.7% | -3.9% | +6.7% | +1.2% | +1.2% |
| Hockeyviz | -5% | -5% | -4% | +6% | +1% | +1% |
| BOS @ NJ | BOS Reg W | BOS OT W | BOS SO W | NJ Reg W | NJ OT W | NJ SO W |
| Sportsclubstats | -3.0% | -3.0% | -2.2% | +4.0% | +0.3% | +0.3% |
| Hockeyviz | -4% | -4% | -3% | +5% | 0% | 0% |
| CAR @ NYI | CAR Reg W | CAR OT W | CAR SO W | NYI Reg W | NYI OT W | NYI SO W |
| Sportsclubstats | +0.7% | +0.0% | +0.1% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.2% |
| Hockeyviz | +1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
You know the drill by now: root against Detroit and Boston. Go team.
