The Flyers were, for the most part, able to celebrate their Easters on Sunday without spending too much time watching the scoreboard in the interest of their playoff hopes, as not much was going on that would factor into their chances of making it. Tonight — with the Flyers and the Red Wings, the team right on their heels in the playoff race, both hosting games — is a different story.
What happened last night?
The Pens and Rangers played in New York, where Pittsburgh came back from a pair of one-goal deficits to win in overtime. That was pretty much it.
How things look now:
Here’s where the four teams in the race for the East’s last three spots are as we stand today.
| (Standing) Team | Points | Games Remaining | ROW | Remaining Strength of Schedule (Points %) | Teams in Playoff Race* Left On Schedule | Back-To-Backs Left On Schedule |
| (W1) NY Islanders | 89 | 8 | 36 | 57.9% | 5 | 2 |
| (A3) Boston | 88 | 6 | 36 | 56.8% | 3 | 0 |
| (W2) Philadelphia | 85 | 8 | 34 | 56.8% | 5 | 3 |
| (W3) Detroit | 85 | 7 | 35 | 53.5% | 4 | 3 |
* “Teams In Playoff Race” includes any team in or within two points of a playoff spot; in other words, the sixteen teams currently in playoff spots plus Detroit.
Unsurprisingly, nothing changed from yesterday’s picture, outside of some slight tweaks in some teams’ strength of schedule. Here are each team’s playoff odds. (Numbers in parentheses are changes compared to odds prior to yesterday’s games.)
| (Standing) Team | Odds (SportsClubStats) | Odds (hockey-reference) | Odds (Hockeyviz) | Odds (Moneypuck) |
| (W1) NY Islanders | 98.5% (0.0%) | 96.8% (-1.8%) | 97% (0%) | 97.86% (+0.07%) |
| (A3) Boston | 86.4% (0.0%) | 86.2% (+0.6%) | 78% (0%) | 80.94% (+0.21%) |
| (W2) Philadelphia | 68.4% (+0.2%) | 66.1% (-2.9%) | 72% (0%) | 70.39% (-0.39%) |
| (W3) Detroit | 46.3% (+0.2%) | 50.1% (+4.4%) | 53% (+1%) | 50.34% (+0.34%) |
Again, essentially nothing changed with the Pens’ overtime win (and with the Carolina Hurricanes’ win against New Jersey, which I guess still factors into a very small number of the simulations run in these oddsmaking machines), except for at hockey-ref where they seem to be totally doing their own thing over there. The outlook is by and large the same as it was on Sunday morning.
Games that matter tonight:
Now to the important stuff! Here are the two games tonight that the Flyers will need to concern themselves with:
- Their own game, of course: the Flyers host the Winnipeg Jets tonight at 7.
- Meanwhile, the Red Wings will host the Buffalo Sabres, who of course are out of the playoff race and are mostly just playing out the string. Some help from the Sabres would be nice, but it’ll be tough to count on./
How much do tonight’s games matter?
Here are the projected changes in the Flyers’ playoff odds based on potential results tonight, from the sites that make such information available.
| WPG @ PHI | WPG Reg W | WPG OT W | WPG SO W | PHI Reg W | PHI OT W | PHI SO W |
| Sportsclubstats | -14.6% | -4.3% | -4.3% | +7.4% | +7.4% | +5.6% |
| Hockeyviz | -14% | -4% | -4% | +7% | +7% | +6% |
| BUF @ DET | BUF Reg W | BUF OT W | BUF SO W | DET Reg W | DET OT W | DET SO W |
| Sportsclubstats | +8.7% | +3.0% | +3.0% | -5.4% | -5.4% | -2.6% |
| Hockeyviz | +7% | +2% | +2% | -4% | -4% | -3% |
With the Wings looking at a likely win, it’ll be on the Flyers to hold serve in a game that they too should be expected to win unless they want to fall out of their perch in the second Wild Card spot and see their playoff hopes take a serious hit in the process. And I don’t think they want to see that! Let’s see it, the Flyers.
