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NHL playoff race: Full schedule of games features many with impact on Flyers’ playoff chances

A pretty quiet night in the NHL last night, as there were only three teams in action and not a whole lot took place that affected the Flyers‘ chances of making the playoffs. Today, and tonight, will likely be a different story.

What happened last night?

The Islanders got in a bit of a barn-burner in Tampa that they’d ultimately end up on the losing side of, as they’d fall 7-4 to the defending East champs. In terms of what impacted the Flyers, that’s about it.

How things look now:

Here’s where the four teams in the race for the East’s last three spots are as we stand today.

(Standing) Team Points Games Remaining ROW Remaining Strength of Schedule (Points %) Teams in Playoff Race* Left On Schedule Back-To-Backs Left On Schedule
(W1) NY Islanders 87 9 35 57.4% 5 3
(A3) Boston 86 7 35 55.0% 3 0
(W2) Philadelphia 85 9 34 56.0% 5 3
(W3) Detroit 85 8 35 54.3% 5 3

* “Teams In Playoff Race” includes any team in or within two points of a playoff spot; in other words, the sixteen teams currently in playoff spots plus Detroit and Colorado.

And here are each team’s playoff odds. (Numbers in parentheses are changes compared to odds prior to yesterday’s games.)

(Standing) Team Odds (SportsClubStats) Odds (hockey-reference) Odds (Hockeyviz) Odds (Moneypuck)
(W1) NY Islanders 95.0% (-2.1%) 93.5% (-3.5%) 93% (-3%) 93.45% (-2.53%)
(A3) Boston 70.2% (+0.5%) 68.7% (+0.3%) 56% (+1%) 60.07% (+0.09%)
(W2) Philadelphia 76.1% (+0.7%) 75.1% (-1.2%) 82% (+1%) 80.08% (+0.30%)
(W3) Detroit 60.8% (+0.7%) 63.5% (+1.9%) 71% (+1%) 67.74% (+1.54%)

For the most part, everyone saw their chances climb very slightly in the event of a possible Islanders collapse. Not quite sure what’s going on with hockey-reference dropping the Flyers’ chances after a division rival lost in regulation, but we know The Truth so it’s OK.

Games that matter tonight:

Just about everyone’s in action on a busy day in the NHL as 14 games will take place. Here are the ones you actually need to concern yourself with.

  • The Flyers will be in Arizona tonight. Some #FlyersAfterDark action as we’ve got a 10:00 p.m. start, which means all of the other relevant games will be completed by then.
  • The Red Wings will host the Penguins this afternoon at 2:00 p.m. The good news, of course, is that one of these teams has to lose; the bad news, naturally, is that one of them must win. If you’re still holding out hope of the Flyers passing the Penguins in the race, or if you’re just in the mood for the Penguins to lose, you can root for Detroit to beat them. If you really just want to get Detroit as far behind the Flyers in the standings as possible … I’m not going to type it out here, but you know what needs to happen. Let’s all just hope for some good fun regulation-time hockey here.
  • Meanwhile, the free-falling Bruins head to Toronto for some good ol’ Hockey Night in Canada action. The Flyers sit in a very solid position relative to the Bruins — just one point back with two games in hand — but if Toronto can pull off a minor upset here, the Flyers could maybe even pass the Bruins in points despite having games still to make up on them. (Note that this doesn’t necessarily matter standings-wise — the Flyers cannot jump both of Detroit and Boston in the standings as one of them will finish third place in the Atlantic division and be guaranteed a spot — but given that all the Flyers need to do to make the playoffs is finish ahead of one of these teams in question, it’s always good to have more points than them.)
  • And the Islanders are right back at it, as they’ll play in Carolina. The Flyers would actually draw even in the standings with Brooklyn with an Isles regulation loss (and a Flyers win), so let’s hope that happens.

How much do tonight’s games matter?

Here are the projected changes in the Flyers’ playoff odds based on potential results tonight, from the sites that make such information available.

PHI @ ARI PHI Reg W PHI OT W PHI SO W ARI Reg W ARI OT W ARI SO W
Sportsclubstats +8.2% +8.2% +6.9% -10.4% -1.2% -1.2%
Hockeyviz +5% +5% +5% -11% -2% -2%

PIT @ DET PIT Reg W PIT OT W PIT SO W DET Reg W DET OT W DET SO W
Sportsclubstats +4.0% +0.4% +0.4% -2.5% -3.8% -3.3%
Hockeyviz +3% 0% 0% -2% -2% -2%

BOS @ TOR BOS Reg W BOS OT W BOS SO W TOR Reg W TOR OT W TOR SO W
Sportsclubstats -3.0% -3.0% -2.1% +4.3% +0.8% +0.8%
Hockeyviz -4% -4% -3% +4% 0% 0%

As always, it’d be nice to get some help elsewhere, but nothing turns the needle as much in either direction as whatever the Flyers themselves do. Let’s go.

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