The Flyers were off on Wednesday night, but there were two other games in action, and both of them had at least some slight impact on the Flyers’ chances at playing hockey games into late April. How so? Let’s take a look.
What happened last night?
- The Islanders managed a 3-1 win over visiting Ottawa, allowing them to pick back up most of the ground the Flyers had gained on them with their win in Brooklyn on Monday night. Not quite what the Flyers were hoping for.
- The Bruins, however, took a 5-2 loss from the Rangers, which was quite nice of them. They still sit ahead of the Flyers but are certainly now within striking distance, three points up but with an additional two games played./
How things look now:
The four teams in the chase for the East’s final three playoff spots can be seen below. Sadly, we’ve removed Pittsburgh from the table for now as it would take a monumental collapse for them to not make it at this point.
| (Standing) Team | Points | Games Remaining | ROW | Remaining Strength of Schedule (Points %) | Teams in Playoff Race* Left On Schedule | Back-To-Backs Left On Schedule |
| (A3) Boston | 86 | 8 | 35 | 55.4% | 4 | 1 |
| (W1) NY Islanders | 87 | 10 | 35 | 57.6% | 6 | 3 |
| (W2) Philadelphia | 83 | 10 | 33 | 55.8% | 6 | 3 |
| (W3) Detroit | 83 | 9 | 34 | 53.9% | 5 | 3 |
* “Teams In Playoff Race” includes any team in or within two points of a playoff spot; in other words, the sixteen teams currently in playoff spots plus Detroit and Colorado.
And here, via several different odds-projecting sites, are each team’s playoff odds. Numbers in parentheses are changes compared to odds prior to yesterday’s games.
| (Standing) Team | Odds (SportsClubStats) | Odds (hockey-reference) | Odds (Hockeyviz) | Odds (Moneypuck) |
| (A3) Boston | 86.3% (-5.1%) | 85.1% (-6.3%) | 74% (-8%) | 78.40% (-6.78%) |
| (W1) NY Islanders | 97.6% (+2.3) | 97.3% (+3.4%) | 96% (+3%) | 96.14% (+3.73%) |
| (W2) Philadelphia | 65.3% (+1.1%) | 62.5% (-3.1%) | 74% (+2%) | 70.82% (+1.07%) |
| (W3) Detroit | 52.0% (+1.4%) | 55.7% (+4.9%) | 58% (+1%) | 56.66% (+1.47%) |
A little curious that hockey-reference’s model dropped the Flyers by as much as it did, as they appear to have found something last night that bumped Detroit’s chances way up. In any case, for the most part we see the Flyers’, Wings’ and Isles’ odds all bump up slightly at the expense of the Bruins. So much so, in fact, that my favorite model of the four — Micah Blake McCurdy’s model at hockeyviz.com — now has the Flyers’ chances right there with the Bruins’. Fun!
Games that matter tonight:
All but one of the teams on the table above are playing tonight. Those games are as follows:
- The Flyers, of course, play in Colorado tonight at 9 p.m.
- Their closest competition in the standings, the Red Wings, host Montreal. A Habs victory would be just stupendous.
- And the Bruins, who of course just played and lost last night, are right back at it tonight as they host Florida. Obviously rooting for the Panthers in that one. It’s the Bruins’ last back-to-back game of the season, and with their schedule lightening up a bit the rest of the way, this may be about as good a chance for the Flyers to pick up ground on them as we’ll see./
How much do tonight’s games matter?
Here are the projected changes in the Flyers’ playoff odds based on potential results tonight, from the sites that make such information available.
| PHI @ COL | PHI Reg W | PHI OT W | PHI SO W | COL Reg W | COL OT W | COL SO W |
| Sportsclubstats | +9.8% | +9.8% | +8.2% | -10.3% | -0.8% | -0.8% |
| Hockeyviz | +7% | +7% | +6% | -13% | -3% | -3% |
| MTL @ DET | MTL Reg W | MTL OT W | MTL SO W | DET Reg W | DET OT W | DET SO W |
| Sportsclubstats | +7.7% | +2.5% | +2.5% | -4.6% | -4.5% | -2.6% |
| Hockeyviz | +6% | +2% | +2% | -3% | -3% | -2% |
| FLA @ BOS | FLA Reg W | FLA OT W | FLA SO W | BOS Reg W | BOS OT W | BOS SO W |
| Sportsclubstats | +2.9% | +0.1% | +0.1% | -1.7% | -2.1% | -1.8% |
| Hockeyviz | +4% | 0% | 0% | -3% | -3% | -3% |
You can see a lot’s at stake tonight, and a whole lot could go right or wrong in these three games that could change the Flyers’ outlook. But of course it all starts with the orange and black themselves. Get a win, boys.
