Five “over-unders” for the 2022-23 Flyers

If you’re not pessimistic about this season for the Philadelphia Flyers (or somehow, overtly and unwaveringly optimistic, which if that’s the case, then good on you!) then expectations for this team would be best described as “we don’t know”.

As such, there’s a lot of factors and performances that could swing this team in either direction in the Metropolitan Division, too many to exactly cover in one round. Therefore, we wanted to take a look a few of these variables in the form of “over-unders” and of course, get you, the readers’, input as well.

So, without further ado, here are five “over-unders” for this upcoming season…

1. Cam Atkinson – Over/Under 30 Goals

Other than Joel Farabee, and arguably James van Riemsdyk, Cam Atkinson is one of the only dynamic scoring threats on this roster. The ever popular winger can beat defenders with his speed and is able to utilize his skills in varied and unpredictable ways to always pose a thread to opposing teams.

If the Flyers are going to make any noise this year, they’ll need their top players such as Atkinson to be factors night in and night out. Atkinson has had seasons of 41 and 35 goals in his NHL career, but its been since 2018-19 when he last broke the 30 goal barrier. A big scoring season from Atkinson would certainly help a team who finished 31st of 32 NHL teams in goals-for last season, but is it in the cards?

I’m taking the under on this bet, but still, it is likely Atkinson scores close to that number. If he scored 23 goals on a bad Flyers team, he can definitely replicate that if the Flyers are indeed as bad as some think they will be.

Cam Atkinson – Over/Under 30 Goals

2. Rasmus Ristolainen – Over/Under 25% Entry Chance Prevention (Corey Sznadjer’s Metric)

To provide some context, as we all know, Rasmus Ristolainen isn’t actually the worst defender in the NHL but his micro-stats are bad and general play is not befitting of how most teams (including the Flyers) see him.

With a gap between underlying numbers and reputation/market value like Ristolainen has, you typically expect to see some “stuff” in the microstats that he does on the ice.

Not so much the case here. He’s big and shoots the puck. pic.twitter.com/41VRHTyZo9

— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) March 10, 2022

As is explored above, Ristolainen faired poorly when looking at most defensive metrics (I choose not to judge him on offensive output as that isn’t really his role). He fared particularly poorly related to denying opposing forwards entry into the zone and chances therein, as well as exiting the defensive zone, and passing out of his own zone, which are crucial skills for a defenseman.

I’ll take the over on if he can improve his entry chance prevention, as I think last season was particularly bad for him, but it won’t be a massive over.

Rasmus Ristolainen – Over/Under 25% Entry Chance Prevention

3. Ryan Ellis – Over/Under 20 Games Played

The Flyers are seemingly conflicted when it comes to their outlook on Ryan Ellis. Chuck Fletcher himself has admitted that his injury could be career ending.

Related

Ryan Ellis’s career might be over

However, when speaking to the media, John Tortorella has implied that Ellis could be ready during some point of the regular season. Ellis has had injury issues in the past (and present), and he only appeared in 4 games last season for the Orange and Black?

We’ve seen more and more players, sadly, having their careers cut short due to injury, or just choosing to retire after listening to their bodies, especially after the NHL Bubble and shortened 2021-2022 season due to COVID-19 (perhaps due to schedules being thrown off and a lack of organized activity for large stretches over this time). Regardless, the news isn’t positive for Ellis.

That being said, I’m going to take the over on this, if only out of hope that Ellis will be health and able to both live his life to the fullest and continue his NHL career,

Ryan Ellis – Over/Under 20 Games Played

4. Chuck Fletcher – Over/Under 3 Trades Made Before/During Deadline

This over/under could either be the result of the Flyers being aggressive due to being good, or out of selling assets because they are bad (or just because Fletcher woke up one morning and decided to trade a 6th round pick for a 6th round pick for the laughs). The only stipulation here is that Fletcher makes more than 3 trades up to and including the trade deadline.

With how inactive the Flyers have been during the offseason, you’d think little trade activity would occur otherwise, but with the Flyers, Fletcher has never been afraid to press the “Go” button on swap deals. I’m easily taking the over here.

Chuck Fletcher – Over/Under 3 Trades

5. Power Play 1 – Over/Under 18% Effectiveness

The NHL average Power Play Percentage was 20.6% last season. The Flyers finished at 12.6%, a whole percentage point behind the Montreal Canadiens to secure dead last in the NHL in this category,

For a team that used to be known for their Power Play effectiveness, the Flyers in recent seasons have had little success stories on the man advantage. It looks doubtful that the Flyers will suddenly have a top 10 unit in the league, but if they could even be around average, that would be a massive boost. We’ll see if Tortorella and his coaching staff can fix this aspect of the Flyers’ game.

Will they hit 18% though? The Washington Capitals, even with the best Power Play shooter in the league in Alex Ovechkin, were still only ranked 23rd at 18.8%.

Yet, I will still take the under here. They lost their Power Play rock in Claude Giroux, who will be hard to replace at his spot.

Power Play – Over/Under 18%