Here we are. We find ourselves with hope in our hearts and imagining just how happy we could be if some little ping-pong balls go in our favor.
The Philadelphia Flyers are involved in yet another draft lottery and while this time it is much less likely for anything to happen that could bring us joy, there is still the slightest chance that the Flyers could rocket up the draft and suddenly find themselves getting a very good player this June.
As it stands, the Flyers sit with the 12th overall pick — as we all know — and have a minimal chance to move up at all in the draft. Due to the NHL’s rules that a team cannot jump more than 10 spots in the draft, the highest they could select — if they win a lottery — would be second overall. But, thanks to our friends over at Tankathon, we know that the Flyers have these odds at getting these certain selections:
Second overall – 5.1%
Third overall – 0.1%
Fourth overall – 0.1%
12th overall – 85.7%
13th overall – 8.9%
14th overall – 0.2%
Those are certainly some numbers.
Barring any insanity taking place within the secret tilt-a-whirl full of the NHL’s balls, we should expect the Flyers to pick either second, 12th, or 13th. The only reason why they have an infinitesimal chance to be selecting anywhere else come Draft Day, is if some other team (or two) below them win the lottery and we get a big jumbled mess of a draft board.
So, of course, this is all about the Flyers have essentially a 1-in-20 chance to get the second pick on June 28. And now we have to ask one simple question: What if?
If by some way and somehow, the Flyers end up with the second overall pick and three consecutive years with a pick in the top-seven selections, then it could mean a world of difference for a team that feels just on the edge of making something special.
Players they could take
First, it makes sense to at least familiarize yourself with potential second-overall picks for the upcoming 2024 NHL Draft. Like any normal hockey fan who doesn’t obsess over prospects and likes watching the game when they can, these might be the first time you really read these names, so we’ll keep it brief.
Ivan Demidov
An all-offense winger whose tools and skill is right up there with our own Matvei Michkov. There is actually an intense online debate between prospect nerds as to whether Michkov or Demidov is the better prospect — in summary, Michkov is more skilled and gamebreaking, Demidov is all-around the more reliable talent.
He is simply dominating the Russian junior league, and will most likely continue his efforts for SKA St. Petersburg in the KHL, potentially as Michkov’s and fellow Flyers prospect Yegor Zavragin’s teammates.
Demidov is pretty much locked in at second overall, but there are a couple other options that could battle for that spot, especially considering they aren’t wingers.
Cayden Lindstrom
It would be Just So National Hockey League for a team to take a center at second overall because they are a center. Cayden Lindstrom of the WHL’s Medicine Hat Tigers is one of the premier centers in this group and being skilled and 6-foot-4 must have teams dreaming of the kind of Ryan Getzlaf, all-around talent centers that you need to draft high up to even think about.
Lindstrom could easily go second overall, and it shouldn’t be that controversial, especially if a team wants a more pro-ready body that doesn’t really need another season in junior.
Artyom Levshunov
If a team wants help on the blue line, it’s really Artyom Levshunov and then a bunch of players below him. In his freshman year at Michigan State University, Levshunov scored nine goals and 35 points in just 38 games. The dude is insane offensively and will just need to develop his two-way game to make it professionally. The tools are there and any team should be frothing at the mouth to get this right-handed shooter on their blue line.
We have seen plenty of times before where a team just prefers the defenseman option to any forward simply because of the positional need.
Accelerating the rebuild
Now to get to the juice. If the Flyers actually managed to be in that fiveish percent and get the second pick of the whole dang thing, and then draft Demidov (or any player above, I guess), then it can mean a whole lot of things for the short- and long-term future of this team.
Simply put, it should boost the rebuilding process tenfold.
The Flyers’ front office keeps on harping on about getting this “top-end talent” and by getting one just handed to them thanks to some dumb luck, then maybe they can turn on a couple switches from complete rebuilding mode to establishing a foundation of success. Suddenly, with Michkov and (hypothetically) Demidov as forward talents, and a solid core of already-NHLers like Tyson Foerster, Owen Tippett, Morgan Frost (maybe), Cam York, and Joel Farabee, all under the age of 25, then the holes just need to be filled to maybe take that next step.
Yes, even if they didn’t win a lottery and they draft at 12th overall, and select someone like Cole Eiserman, Liam Greentree, Andrew Basha — whatever other name you want to pick out of a hat — then they are still getting someone who could be a top-line contributor, no question. But that would take a little bit more care and more uneasiness about going full-tilt in the other direction.
They would probably still want to maximize their rebuilding process by either sucking next season or trading away a bunch of players to get some picks and prospects. If they select second overall, then maybe the team would have to really think about moving players like Travis Konecny or Travis Sanheim, instead of just tossing them away for as many future assets as they can get.
More time for other prospects
With an increase at the top of the prospect pool, making it that Michkov is joined hand-in-hand by whoever the Flyers hypothetically select at second overall, lessens the burden on everyone else. Maybe the saying of “High tides rises all ships” or whatever the real one is, should be appropriate here. If the Flyers have a top-ended prospect pool, then prospects like Denver Barkey, Oliver Bonk, Samu Tuomaala, and even older players like Bobby Brink, could experience less anxiety about needing to make an impact.
Suddenly, the attention draws to Michkov and Demidov/Lindstrom/Levshunov/whoever to be those go-to guys and add to an already-established foundation that this team has created. And then, maybe around the same time of later, Barkey and Bonk can come along and just be a middle-six winger or a fourth-to-fifth defenseman and have some stellar nights, but just grow as players in the top hockey league in the world.
Getting a theoretically better player to add to your talent crop is never a bad thing, and it has its ripple effects on the entire organization — from other prospects to long-term outlook of the hockey club.
Or maybe it would just be easier to not have that pressure of a massive draft lottery win and steadily build a sneaky contender.
