Ivan Provorov has long been hailed as the crown jewel of Ron Hextall’s rebuild. A defensive prospect billed as the guy who could finally give the Philadelphia Flyers a long-sought replacement for Chris Pronger in the No. 1 defenseman spot, much of the hype for the team’s future rested on his shoulders as he progressed. After a trio of uneven seasons (a promising breakout in 2017-18, horrible regression in 2018-19, and return to form in 2019-20 alongside Matt Niskanen), many considered 2020-21 to be the year that Provorov would finally insert himself into the conversation surrounding the NHL’s best young defenders. Instead, the 24-year-old stagnated, playing like an okay second pair guy instead of showing out and cementing himself as a legit top-pair stud.
Was Provorov really to blame for his shortcomings this season, or were they just a product of inflated perceptions and poor support? That’s a difficult question to answer, but one thing is for certain: Ivan Provorov has legitimate concerns about his upside heading into the sixth season of his NHL career. Why is that? Let’s dive in.
By The Numbers
Basic Stats
| GP | G | A | P | PIM | Shots On Goal | Shooting Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 7 | 19 | 26 | 28 | 126 | 5.60% |
In terms of simple counting stats, Provorov saw clear scoring regression from a 2019-20 where he again produced above-average shooting from the blue line (13 goals). Compared to his results in 2020-21, it’s clear that No. 9 suffered after losing the defensive partner who helped him take a big step forward in the previous season. Matt Niskanen was apparently the guy who made that pair work, at least on paper. Weird.
5v5 SVA On-Ice Stats
| Corsi For Percentage SVA | Corsi For Percentage Relative SVA | xGF Percentage SVA | xGF Percentage Relative SVA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48.87% | -3.15% | 49.97% | -0.28% |
Considering the minutes that Provorov played and his competition, his underlying numbers aren’t abysmal. Still, a provenNo. 1 defenseman could carry play against stiff opposition even if his partner isn’t helping out too much; when looking at these numbers, it’s clear that didn’t happen. What this tells us is two things: Provorov is a perfectly acceptable player without a good partner but not a transformative one, and we have reason to believe that adding Ryan Ellis to the mix in 2020-21 will help him regain form.
5v5 Individual Stats
| Points/60 | Primary Points/60 | Shot Attempts/60 | xGF/60 | xGA/60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.64 | 0.23 | 10.61 | 2.06 | 2.1 |
The thing that catches the eye here ought to be Provorov’s dismal primary scoring. In 2020-21, the big blue liner was heavily reliant on secondary assists for his points, a trend that indicates lackluster offensive creativity. That lines up with the eye test; Provorov’s well documented struggles walking the blue line with the puck once again hindered his productivity in the offensive zone, and without a partner to handle the playmaking (thus allowing him to function mostly as a shooter, a role he’s better suited for) his stats suffered.
Three Questions
Did they live up to our expectations?
Not really. Ivan Provorov is a guy who people thought could be a Norris dark horse entering the season. Instead, he was a middling NHL top pair player whose flaws were laid bare for everybody to see. We wouldn’t call that an ideal season.
What do we/can we expect next season?
A resurgence. Alongside one of the best RHD in the NHL in Ryan Ellis, Provorov should find his shine again and produce at a solid clip. Ellis was the backbone behind Roman Josi’s final transformation into a superstar offensive defender, so he’s capable of doing the same here barring injuries or the unforeseen.
How would you grade their 2020-21 season?
Provorov earns a B- from BSH. He was an acceptable player, but not the impactful presence we all expected. Hopefully better things are ahead.
