One week ago, the Philadelphia Flyers had a chance to pull ahead of the teams chasing them in the Eastern Conference playoff race with games against the Canadiens, Blackhawks, and Islanders on tap. Many people expected at least a point per game, if not two easy wins against Montreal and Chicago. But the Flyers fell flat with losses to the Habs and Hawks before clawing back for a point against the Isles.
The Flyers did get a bit lucky, however, with the Capitals only picking up one point in their three games over the past week as well — although they had a tougher path with games against the Leafs, Bruins, and Sabres.
Meanwhile, the Red Wings were able to go 1-1-1 during their road trip in Carolina, Florida, and Tampa Bay to get right back into things.
Now, not only do the Flyers have to contend with Washington and Detroit, but the Islanders and potentially Penguins as well. The Isles are in the midst of a 3-1-0 stretch with a few winnable games coming up. It would take a lot for Pittsburgh to leapfrog the teams ahead of them, but a five-game point streak (4-0-1) has raised their playoff chances from none to slim.
With all of those teams idle on Wednesday night, now’s a great time to look at the upcoming schedules. All four of the Flyers, Capitals, Red Wings, and Islanders are off on Monday so we’ll be looking at these next four days through the weekend.
The Flyers have two games that they should be able to get at least two points total out of. Columbus has been sneaky, though, with the Blue Jackets ripping off back-to-back home wins over the Penguins and Avalanche.
The Sabres, despite missing the playoffs, are having quite the impact on the race for the final wild-card spot. Buffalo beat the Capitals on Tuesday, host the Flyers on Friday night, and then travel to Detroit on Sunday — the Capitals also host the Sabres next Thursday.
A couple of Metropolitan Division rivals have a chance to help or hurt the Flyers with the Capitals’ back-to-back set against the Penguins and Hurricanes. They might be favored against the Penguins and already took down the Hurricanes 7-6 in a shootout a few weeks ago. Granted, the Hurricanes were the team on no days rest in that one.
The Red Wings also have a tougher path this weekend with games against the Rangers and Sabres. They are at home, though. That’s beneficial to a Detroit team that’s 21-11-5 at home as opposed to 16-19-3 on the road. Still, the Rangers have a lot to play for and the Sabres seem to be enjoying playing spoiler.
Finally, the Islanders are in Columbus on Thursday night before hosting the Predators on Sunday. They’re big favorites against the Blue Jackets but Nashville will pose a tougher test.
Looking ahead to each team’s final handful of games next week and beyond, the Flyers (at Rangers), Red Wings (at Toronto), and Islanders (at Rangers) all play one playoff team while the Capitals still have games against the Lightning and Bruins before coming to Philadelphia for the final game of the season.
The one uncomfortable thing is that the Flyers no longer control their destiny. The Capitals and Red Wings both have higher maximum points than Philadelphia, even with a head-to-head matchup next Monday. If the Flyers win out there is a small chance that they miss out on the playoffs.
All in all, the Flyers are still in solid shape in the playoff race. Public models have them more or less around 50-50 (61.9% MoneyPuck, 48% The Athletic, 44% Hockey Reference) with oddsmakers offering around -110 for the Flyers to make or miss the playoffs.
