The Philadelphia Flyers woke up on Christmas Day this week in a playoff spot for the first time since 2019. Of course, that was also the last time that the Flyers made the playoffs.
Not only are the Flyers in a playoff spot at the holiday break, but they have one of the three playoff spots in the Metropolitan Division, not a wild card spot. Philadelphia is playing great hockey and it appears to be rather sustainable.
So, can the Flyers actually make the playoffs? Let’s take a look at the Eastern Conference coming out of the holiday break.
Playoff Locks
New York Rangers, Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs, Florida Panthers
The Rangers are the best team in the NHL and are a lock for the playoffs. Our old friend Peter Laviolette — who is one of John Tortorella’s main competitors for the Jack Adams Award — has the Rangers playing great hockey in his first year behind the bench in New York
Boston is right up there as well atop the Atlantic Division. The Bruins may have lost some of their depth but it doesn’t hurt to have two Vezina Trophy-quality goalies splitting time between the pipes.
On the other side of the Eastern Conference, the Maple Leafs and Panthers should round out the top three spots in the Atlantic. Toronto and Florida could both threaten for the top seed in that division with Boston faltering as of late.
And just like that half of the Eastern Conference playoff picture is decided.
So which teams will the Flyers be battling with for one of the final four spots?
Playoff Pedigree
New Jersey Devils, Carolina Hurricanes, Tampa Bay Lightning, Pittsburgh Penguins
All four of these teams came into this season with playoff expectations — some higher than others.
The Lightning’s dynasty hasn’t quite run its course just yet and the Penguins are going for one last dance. It wouldn’t shock me if at least one of these teams turns it around in 2024 to take another crack at the Cup.
Then there are the Devils and Hurricanes. These two were expected to be competing for a division crown, and while that’s not completely out of the question, it’s looking more likely that they’ll miss the playoffs than win the Metropolitan.
Having said that, both New Jersey and Carolina are talented squads that should still make the playoffs. It would be quite surprising if neither of these teams can get back on track to secure their playoff spot.
Out of this group of four, I’m expecting at least two teams to make the playoffs and wouldn’t be surprised with three.
That likely leaves one playoff spot for a few Metropolitan Division rivals.
Push for the Playoffs
Washington Capitals, New York Islanders, Philadelphia Flyers
All three of these teams are surprising some people this season by not only competing for a playoff spot but also being in the top half of the Metropolitan at the holiday break. We know all about what our Flyers are doing, and we’ve seen firsthand how tough the Capitals and Islanders are to play.
The Capitals and Islanders seem to be the Flyers’ main competition for the last playoff spot (along with whoever drops out above).
The good news for the Flyers is that they’ve clearly been the best team out of this trio.
Philadelphia ranks seventh in the league with a 52.78% xGF at 5-on-5 while the Islanders (48.35%) and Capitals (47.54%) are in the bottom 10, per Natural Stat Trick. The Flyers have also played a much harder schedule, according to Hockey Reference, ranking third-hardest in the conference (0.03 SOS) with the Capitals (-0.15) playing the second-easiest schedule and Islanders (-0.07) towards the bottom half.
The Flyers also have one of the easier remaining schedules. According to Tankathon, the Capitals and Islanders have the third- and sixth-hardest schedules remaining, respectively, with the Flyers at 17th. Per Power Rankings Guru, the Capitals play the third-hardest, Islanders 12th, and Flyers 23rd.
All of these factors show up among the prediction models out there. As of Wednesday morning, MoneyPuck gave the Flyers a 65.3% chance to make the playoffs. That’s above the Lightning (54.4%), Capitals (53.3%), Islanders (45.9%), and Penguins (43.2%).
Playoff Prayers
Montreal Canadiens, Detroit Red Wings, Ottawa Senators, Buffalo Sabres
The St. Louis Blues proved in 2019 that anything can happen, but it’d take a lot to happen for one of these teams to climb past the teams above them to make the playoffs.
Eastern Conference Playoff Picture
The playoff picture in the Eastern Conference is still quite murky coming out of the holiday break. There are nearly a dozen teams vying for just eight playoff spots come spring. While four of the spots are more or less spoken for, eight teams will be whittled down to four over the next few months.
The Flyers look to be a good bet to be among those final eight standing in the Eastern Conference. They’ve played one of the toughest schedules, are great at 5-on-5, have two goalies they can trust (for now), and have a great mix of veterans and youngsters playing the game the right way. And if this team can learn to score on a power play, look out.
Things can change quickly, but it looks like the Flyers might actually make the playoffs in what was supposed to be a lost season — and no, it’s not hurting the rebuild.
