If a team scores lots of goals in blowouts but not when it’s close, we skewer them for not being clutch. We mock their worthless goals when the game is out of reach and gripe endlessly about how they can’t score when it counts.
The Flyers this year are the exact opposite. They’re scoring 61% of the goals when the game is tied. They’re scoring 60% of the goals in 1-goal games (59% when up by a goal, 63% when down by a goal, excluding empty net goals). They’re dominating play in the high-leverage situations.
They’re only scoring 41% of the goals in 2-goal games and 40% of the goals in 3+ goal games. Yes, it’s frustrating when they have a big lead and let a team back in the game. But no team is going to score 60% of the goals in all situations, and it’s much more frustrating — and much more costly — to give those goals up in the close games.
If you believe that some teams play better in the close games and some play worse, you should be glad the Flyers play is skewed in the direction it is. Those few blown multigoal leads might be frustrating, but they’re far outweighed by the many wins the team gets by dominating in close games.
Here is the Flyers goals by score spreadsheet, if you’re interested.
If the Flyers are going to score about 55% of the goals, how would you want them distributed?
| I want them to get 60% of the goals when the game is close and 40% when it’s not. | 205 |
| I want them to get 55% of the goals in all situations. | 89 |
| I want them to get 50% of the goals when the game is close and 70% when it’s not. | 27 |
