Flyers vs. Lightning: Odds, Predictions, and Picks

The Flyers are trying to get back in the winning column with tonight\'s matchup against the Tampa Bay Lightning, and while that\'s not the most encouraging or optimistic introduction to an article, here are the numbers:

Odds

Puck Lines

Philadelphia -1.5 (+210)

Tampa Bay +1.5 (-258)

Over/Under

Over 6.5 (+105)

Under 6.5 (-125)

Money Line

Philadelphia (-115)

Tampa Bay (-105)

Miscellaneous

Goals in First 10 Min. Under .5 (+130)

Morgan Frost Over 1.5 SOG (-175)

Cam Atkinson Over 0.5 Points (+110)

Predictions

BSH took the weekend off from making picks, but make no mistake about it. The decision was not a reaction to last week\'s loss of both Dallas Stars bets. Yes, BSH took the Dallas Over 3.5 and the Dallas Moneyline. And no, BSH could not care any less that both bets dropped. The Flyers\' absolute domination of the Stars on home ice was a pleasantly surprising spectacle.

Nonetheless, the Flyers have since lost two in a row against the Avalanche and the Senators, and the vibes are once again bad. Most notable about these last two games is the goal total. Prior to the weekend, it felt like the Flyers were simply incapable of putting points on the board, despite holding opponents to low scoring totals as well. Indeed, defense was the sole reason that the Flyers grabbed a few wins against otherwise good hockey teams.

The question for tonight is simple. Do the Flyers return to their form of late December and early January, or do the Flyers look more like the team from this past weekend? However you answer this question will dictate your picks for tonight. If you think the Flyers will continue to struggle defensively, perhaps consider the Over and/or the Tampa Bay Moneyline. If you think John Tortorella will force his players to buckle down and get back on track, the Under 6.5 might be attractive. Here are our picks.

Picks

Morgan Frost Over 1.5 SOG (-175)

If we are being honest, we really don\'t like the odds here. Morgan Frost has shown himself to be an extremely streaky player this year, and while the streak is hotter than hell right now, when Frost is bad, he is very bad. We fully acknowledge that at -175 this bet is a risky proposition with very little profit. Yet, we are jumping on the Morgan Frost train, hoping that he can keep it rolling.

Under 6.5 (-125)

Despite our reasoning above, this Under bet is not so much a reflection of how we think the Flyers will play tonight. Rather, we simply don\'t feel confident enough to hit the Moneyline or Puck Line. On paper, these two teams are wildly similar, making this a competitive fight. But in light of the Flyers\' past couple of showings, there\'s no telling what this game could look like. We like the increased Over/Under mark of 6.5 and the -125 odds still give us some breathing room.

BSH Pick Record

26-24-1

Talking Points