We’re doing this again, eh? The Philadelphia Flyers will face off against the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight in the third meeting between these two teams. The Flyers have had very little luck against the Leafs this season–none, actually–but tonight’s game comes at a much more crucial juncture in the season. Here are the numbers:
Odds
Puck Lines
- Toronto -1.5 (+185)
- Philadelphia +1.5 (-225)
Over/Under
- Over 6.5 (+102)
- Under 6.5 (-122)
Money Line
- Toronto (-135)
- Philadelphia (+114)
Miscellaneous
- Goals in First 10 Min. Under .5 (+135)
- Joel Farabee Points Over .5 (+100)
- Neither Team to Score 4 Goals (+150)
- Last Team to Score – Philadelphia (+145)
Predictions
Of all the games comprising this last, brutal playoff push, tonight’s might be the most dreaded. Since February 15, which is the first time these two teams took the ice against one another, the Flyers are 5-7-2. Since March 4, which marked the beginning of this extraordinarily tough series against the NHL’s top teams, the Flyers are 2-3-1, losing the last two in a row.
It serves to reason, therefore, that tonight’s matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs is not only a crucial opportunity to get above the .500 point mark in both of the aforementioned stretches; the game is also a a longshot, given that the Flyers have failed to topple the Maple Leafs yet this season.
As BSH predicted in our bets from just a few weeks ago, the .500 point percentage during the Flyers’ eleven-game gauntlet–St. Louis, Florida, Tampa Bay, San Jose (the only brief reprieve), Toronto, Boston, Toronto, Carolina, Boston, Florida, and the New York Rangers–might just be their ticket into the playoffs. They are currently on pace, but maintaining the trajectory will require at least one or two upset wins.
Tonight would certainly check the box. The Flyers have been outscored by the Maple Leafs 10-5 in their two meetings, and the profound lack of offense might be the primary culprit. Sure, Joel Farabee and Owen Tippett both showed up on the score sheet against the Bruins on Saturday, when the Flyers tallied five goals in a close loss. Prior to that game, however, the offense accumulated only eight goals in five outings. Simply stated, it is extremely difficult to win hockey games when your offense averages 1.6 goals per game.
The defense and goaltending also can’t shirk the blame. In the last four games, these two positions have allowed a 21 goals. That is…um…not good, so let’s just leave it there.
Here, then, is the big question: Do the Flyers show up tonight? Do they put up a fight? Or alternatively, do they allow Toronto to sweep all three matchups? Here are our picks:
Picks
Philadelphia Moneyline (+114)
- There are two rationales underlying this pick. First, despite all of the numbers and histories that we laid out above, DraftKings Sportsbook thinks this will be a tight game. Notwithstanding Toronto’s decent Moneyline odds at -135, the Toronto 60 Minute Line crashes down to +125. Given our lack of confidence in the Flyers ability to stymie the Leafs, we would prefer to take the Flyers Puck Line; and if the odds were more favorable for the Leafs, the Puck Line would yield a greater return. However, the Flyers’ Puck Line odds are absolutely worthless at -225. Thus, we arrive at the second rationale. This team has repeatedly proven that it can impress us when we least expect it. Just a week or two ago the Flyers handed the Florida Panthers a shocking regulation loss. Why can’t they do the same tonight against the Maple Leafs? Let’s have some fun and cash a Flyers Moneyline tonight.
Goals in First 10 Min. Under .5 (+135)
- This is perhaps an even riskier bet than the Flyers Moneyline, but the two are intricately related. If the Flyers want to emerge victorious, they need to do one of two things–(a) prevent the Maple Leafs from scoring five goals or (b) score more than five goals. For the Flyers to win, this will not be a 4-3 hockey game like it was in February. It will either be an all out slug fest, or it will be a 2-1, methodically defensive contest. We are hoping for the latter because we simply don’t trust the Flyers’ offense to outperform Auston Matthews. Thus, we are taking the Under for goals in the first ten minutes.
BSH Pick Record
36-30-1
