Recently, two Philadelphia Flyers forwards have taken a massive step up in their game. Morgan Frost and Owen Tippett have really started to take off in the 2024 calendar year.
For starters, the two have had great individual numbers in that time. Since January 1, the two have a combined 57 points in 75 total games despite playing just second-line minutes on a team with a non-existent power play.
One of the big reasons for that? They’re starting to play more alongside one another than ever before. All season long, they have played their best when they are on the ice with one another, and it’s starting to seem that separating them would be doing the Flyers a disservice.
Frost and Tippett as a duo
When looking at the 403 even-strength minutes where Frost and Tippett are together, the results are pretty telling. They have a plus-11 rating (26 goals for to just 15 against) despite the Flyers having an overall minus-17 goal differential on the season.
Looking at a few advanced stats, their play has been pretty solid at even strength. They have a 55.0 expected goals percentage (xGF%), a 52.7 Corsi percentage (CF%), a 56.2 scoring chances percentage (SCF%), and a 59 high-danger chances percentage (HDCF%). For reference, superstar forward David Pastrnak of the Boston Bruins as an individual has worse percentages in each of the following four categories. When Frost and Tippett are on the ice, the chances have been well in favor of Philadelphia.
The eye test has proven the stats test so well that it might not even be doing the two justice. They hooked up on a sick goal against the New York Rangers to tie that game up at four in the third period on March 26. Connecting on long passes has been an issue at times for the Orange and Black — not only was Tippett able to handle a long bomb from Frost, but he scored in a pivotal moment.
Why is that play so worthy of attention? The Flyers don’t really score goals like this. Sure, they score goals off the rush quite frequently, but they also usually carry the puck all the way up the ice when they do this — not flip a puck through the entire neutral zone.
A lot of goals that the Flyers score, especially in the rush, are because their opponent did something terribly wrong. That was the case just minutes before the event transpired. This time, though, the Flyers made a truly high-end skill play to score.
Getting back to the goal, Frost laid out a perfect long saucer pass on the tape of a speeding Tippett who created separation with ease. He got a bit lucky on the finish, banking it off the post, off of goaltender Igor Shesterkin, and in the net, but the scoreboard doesn’t care about a “lucky finish”.
The Flyers generally don’t score goals of this nature. There are very few examples of it in recent memory. That’s why it’s so special. They didn’t win that game, but it was just one small instance of why Frost and Tippett work so well together. Their dominance has been consistent.
Frost and Tippett when separated
For the 1,036 even-strength minutes that Frost and Tippett have been without one another, that’s when everything flips. With 42 goals for and 60 against giving them a minus-18 rating, that’s not very good no matter how you look at it. Both have had almost identical ice time whether they have been together or apart.
Going back to the advanced numbers, the two have a 48.9 xGF%, 52.1 CF%, 50.9 SCF%, and a 51.9 HDCF% when they are apart at even strength. For reference, the Flyers’ average numbers in these stats are as follows: 51.2 xGF%, 51.3 CF%, 50 SCF%, and a 52 HDCF%.
When the two are with each other, their stats in these categories are all better, and some of them by a significant margin. When they aren’t, the expected goals rate plummets below the team average with the other stats more or less remaining the same. For two of the team’s better players, average doesn’t cut it.
Frost and Tippett have solid results with other players. That much is impossible to deny. But, in terms of all-around success, the two go together perfectly. From plus-minus to expected goals, really no other combination has good to elite results in every category quite like they do.
Could the Flyers’ future involve both Frost and Tippett?
At this point, it would certainly seem logical to make both Frost and Tippett fixtures of the Flyers’ offense. The latter was signed to an eight-year deal worth a manageable $6.2 million cap hit in January, while the former is on the first season of his two-year deal. Both are in their age-24 campaigns (the former being 24 and the latter being 25), making them relatively young.
As far as the Flyers’ rebuild is concerned, the age of the two players shouldn’t be an issue at all. They are at an age where they are both young enough to inspire further growth and be an asset for the long-term future.
Teenaged phenom Matvei Michkov will likely make his NHL debut in the 2026-27 season, as that’s when his KHL contract will officially be up. By that time, Frost and Tippett should still be solid second-line contributors, if not a little bit more. Both would be in their age-27 campaigns, so their age wouldn’t be much of an issue.
In the 26-27 season, Tippett would still have plenty of term left on his eight-year contract that doesn’t kick in until 2024-25, while Frost’s deal would be up. Projecting his next contract, a Tippett-like deal would probably make sense with how similar in age and production the two are.
The Flyers don’t have too much offensive firepower other than Michkov in their system, so having a couple of players like Frost and Tippett who can likely be good pieces on a contending second line would take some heat off of him. If the money is right, Frost should get an extension from Philadelphia to keep him and Tippett together for as long as possible.
With Frost and Tippett playing some really solid hockey in the playoff stretch, it could be the start of something special. If it is indicative of anything about their future, the Flyers should be excited to have them. They go hand-in-hand seamlessly.
