NHL playoff race: Bruins, Red Wings losses make Flyers’ road to playoffs a bit easier

Rooting for other teams to lose in the name of your team’s chances at a playoff spot is a stressful exercise a lot of nights. Lord knows we already spend enough energy 82 times a year worrying about our Flyers, so while it’s just the cost of rooting for a bubble team, nights like the ones Flyers fans have been enduring for the past couple of weeks aren’t always easy.

Nights like last night’s, though? Pretty tough to complain, as the Flyers saw two huge games break their way and are now a win away from jumping into sole possession of a wild card spot.

What happened last night?

• RED WINGS LOST 4-3 in Montreal. Blew a third-period lead in the process, at that. They’re still tied with the Flyers for that last spot in the East, but they’ve now played two extra games compared to the orange and black.
• BRUINS LOST 2-1 in New Jersey. Outshot the Devils 40-15 and probably deserved a win, which is a shame because as we know Boston sports are really due for a good break those poor people. They, too, now have two more games played than the Flyers, with just one extra point to show for it.
• The Penguins (now at 94 points with one extra game played) and Islanders (91 points, same number of games played) both won in shootouts. Minor defeats for the Flyers in their uphill battle for the first wild card spot, but barely even blips on the radar compared to the first two games mentioned here./

How things look now:

Here’s where the four teams in the race for the East’s last three spots with last night’s games accounted for.

* “Teams In Playoff Race” includes any team in or within two points of a playoff spot; in other words, the sixteen teams currently in playoff spots plus Detroit.

The Isles have more or less pulled away from the playoff race itself, as it’s extremely difficult at this point to imagine a scenario in which they end up behind all three of the other teams listed here (though, with some luck, their spot in the first wild card position may still be in play). But with two games in hand on each of the Atlantic Division teams surrounding them in the standings, the Flyers are now in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot.

With that, here are your updated playoff probabilities with last night’s games taken into account:

Again, it’s the Flyers who are the big winners here as they sat on their couches and watched the world crumble around them.

Games that matter tonight:

Just the one: the Flyers will host this year’s President’s Trophy winner, the Washington Capitals. A win will surely not be easy to come across, but it would cap off a tremendous three-day stretch for this team’s playoff hopes before they head into a grueling three-back-to-back, six-games-in-nine-days stretch to end the season. A loss wouldn’t be crippling by any means, but it’d certainly level the race a bit and undo some of the good feeling this team has going for it right now.

How much do tonight’s games matter?

Here are the projected changes in the Flyers’ playoff odds based on their game tonight:

Both sites agree that a regulation loss tonight would put the Flyers’ chances around 70 percent, while a win would have them around 89 to 90 percent. I’d like a win. Wouldn’t you?