Philadelphia Flyers Top 25 Under 25, No. 6: Noah Cates

No. 6: Noah Cates, LW/C

2022-23 League/Team(s): Philadelphia Flyers (NHL) 2022-23 Statistics: 82 GP, 13 G, 25 A, 38 PTS, 12 PIM, +/- 3 Age: 24 Acquired In: 2017 NHL Draft - Round 5, Pick 137

How did Cates’ 2022-23 season go? Is his stock trending up or down from where it was entering the year?

By every measure, Cates had an excellent rookie season: he played a full 82 games, and received Selke and Calder votes--all while adjusting to playing center on the fly. His stock is trending upwards thanks to his exceptional defensive play and, if his offense returns in the coming season, his stock could be even higher.

What are we expecting from Cates this season? What should we be looking for from him?

If Cates continues to play at center (which seems likely), the hope is that he continues to hone his stellar defensive instincts and--most importantly--that his offense returns. We know that he\'s a decent scorer: in his junior and senior college years, he was putting up about 0.65 PPG, and was nearly a point-per-game in his sophomore year. Plus, in the 16 game NHL tryout he had at the end of the 2021-22 season, Cates put up nine points in 16 games--not too shabby for an end-of-year debut.

Most of that scoring, however, came at his natural position of left wing. With the Flyers so sorely lacking in center depth in 2022-23, the coaching staff decided to move Cates to the middle and, while his defensive play flourished, his offense fell off a cliff, with Cates registering 0.46 PPG. If he can get his scoring touch back and put up a 50-plus point season, the Flyers have an exceptional, versatile middle-six forward on their hands. A big part of that will be improving his faceoff percentage, too, as he only won 39.5% of faceoffs last season. It\'s hard to score when you can\'t get your team possession, after all, so if the Flyers continue to develop Cates at center, expect to see an emphasis on improving faceoff results.

How does Cates fit in the Flyers’ rebuild? Is it likely he’s going to be a part of the next good Flyers team?

This is where things get tricky: Noah Cates is 24. With the rebuild likely to take a few years, it\'s fair to question whether he\'s already too old to be useful down the line. The other hurdle will be his next contract--Cates is signed to a two-year bridge deal now and, if he continues to improve, a pay day the Flyers can\'t justify might be an issue. In that case, Cates may become a valuable trade piece for prime future assets, rather than a key organizational piece.

Still, the coaching staff loves him, so I think he sticks around. The foundation of Cates\' game is his intelligence, coupled with smart positioning and solid competitiveness. Unlike a power forward\'s more physically punishing style, cerebral players like Cates can--if they\'re lucky--age a little more gracefully. If that holds true for Cates, he could end up being one of the most useful forwards on a contending Flyers roster, and his next contract shouldn\'t be an issue.

What do we think Cates’ ultimate NHL upside is, and how likely is it that he gets to something approaching that?

The upside for Cates is a top-six, shut down forward who can still put up points and be useful on the penalty kill; what we saw this past season is probably his floor as a middle-sixer. The more interesting question than his upside, however, is which position he ends up in--and that depends almost entirely on the health and viability of Sean Couturier.

If, five years from now, Coots is still playing and able to hold down a second or third line center role, the Flyers have a couple of options for Cates. The easy call is to have Cates center whichever line Coots isn\'t on; Anthony Cirelli is a comparable projection that\'s been thrown around for Cates, and that\'s solid return for a fifth round pick: a player who can contribute a modicum of offense while being defensively sound and making sure your team has the puck. However, if the Flyers wanted a total shutdown line, they could have Cates on Couturier\'s wing; those two together could smother the opposition. Or, perhaps, the Flyers have a higher-scoring option at 2C, and Cates at wing turns into a Mitch Marner-lite player, scoring maybe 50-60 points per season and providing defensive backup for his linemates.

Of course, if Couturier\'s tenure with the Flyers is over in five years--whether due to injury, a trade, or retirement--Cates obviously remains at center. As it stands though, the Flyers\' only other natural left winger with top-six potential is Joel Farabee, so there\'s a clear path for Cates to stake a claim at 2LW if the Flyers find other solutions at center. That\'s kind of the fun part about Cates, though: his versatility let\'s you imagine several successful scenarios.

Anything else?

Of the Flyers\' oldest prospects (the ones graduating from this list that won\'t appear here next summer), I think Cates is the most valuable--more so even than Owen Tippett or Morgan Frost. His game should age very well, and even on the cusp of 30 Cates should provide positive on-ice value in a middle-six role; that means he could still be an important piece of the next good Flyers team. I\'m a little higher on him than others for that reason, but at the outset of a rebuild you\'ve got to consider which \"older\" players have a style that will still be effective long term--for me, Cates is that player.

Talking Points