The Game: 7:30 p.m. EST on ESPN+/Hulu
Did everyone manage an exhale of relief after Tuesday’s win over the San Jose Sharks? Good, remember that feeling–because you might not feel it again for several weeks.
We’ve been talking about this upcoming gauntlet for a couple weeks now, and while the Florida road trip gave us a taste, the meat & potatoes begins tonight as your Philadelphia Flyers welcome the Toronto Maple Leafs. Over the next two weeks, the Flyers will see this Leafs team a second time, as well as two matches against the Boston Bruins, and one a piece against the Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers, and New York Rangers. Hold on to your butts.
In the here and now, however, the Flyers have caught a bit of a reprieve: Mitch Marner’s likely missing tonight’s game, and possibly the next one as well, due to injury. Take a core player missing from the lineup for granted at your own peril, though: this Leafs team still has enough talent to embarrass a team like the Flyers–even if it is just Auston Matthews going beast mode for ten minutes like last time, where the Flyers outplayed the Leafs for most of the game but couldn’t stop Matthews from netting a hat trick.
Still, the Leafs aren’t quite as loaded as they were at this time last year, after the trade deadline. No splashy moves like getting Ryan O’Reilly or Luke Schenn, or convoluted trades to get a few depth players–in Brad Treliving’s first deadline as Leafs GM, he traded two 3rd rounders, a 4th, a 5th and two 6ths for Ilya Lyubushkin, Joel Edmundson, Connor Dewar, and Cade Webber. Not exactly thrilling additions, and none that really solved the outstanding issues on the Leafs roster–namely a nearly all-lefty blue line and contributing depth players. If the Leafs punt in the playoffs again, expect some wholesale roster changes as the “Core Four” of Matthews, Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares once again fail to get it done in the playoffs.
The Flyers, meanwhile, are adjusting to their own blue line troubles: Sean Walker’s gone, and all of Nick Seeler, Jamie Drysdale and Rasmus Ristolainen remain injured–oh, and Erik Johnson’s here, along with rookie Ronnie Attard. The Flyers’ defensemen were generally fine in Tuesday’s win over the Sharks, so it stands to reason all six get similar usage in tonight’s game. Barring any other unforeseen circumstances, the forward group probably doesn’t move around to much either–maybe Gurianov swaps lines with someone, but considering how successful the other lines on the Flyers were, messing with a good thing may not be the best approach.
Players to Watch
Cam York
It feels like we’re sleeping on Cam York. He has seven points in his last eight games, and has blocked 34 shots in that time. Are we taking his play for granted? Let’s do a quick comparison between last year’s York and this year’s isolated impact via HockeyViz:
Compared to last year, York’s defensive game has been essentially the same–but his offense has fallen off a cliff. He’s still performing overall as a good second-pair defenseman, but last year he was in first-pair territory due to his offensive contributions. York’s PDO on the whole this season is 96.2, which means there’s been a little bad luck coming his way while on the ice. If his PDO gets closer to 100 (it was 100.2 in 2022-23), and his offense swings back the other way (this seven points in eight might be the start of it), the Flyers have a rock solid No. 2/3 guy in York who, at just 23, still has some runway to develop. Watch for him to have some offensive jump and continue blocking shots.
Owen Tippett
If the Flyers want to make it through this gauntlet still in a playoff position and even have a remote chance of winning a round, they need their scorers firing on all cylinders–and Owen Tippett’s one of those players. Tippett’s had a bit of a cold streak lately, so maybe that game-winning goal against the Sharks will provide a spark and get him back on the scoresheet more consistently.
Auston Matthews
Who else but the league-leading goal scorer? Matthews has 54 (!!) so far this season, and while he’s had a bit of a drought (two in his last eight), he’s still probably the best goal scorer in the league. The Flyers know this quite well from the last time they faced the Leafs: they blew a lead by letting Matthews net a natural hat trick in a span of about ten minutes in the second period, despite Philadelphia being the better team for the majority of the game. To win tonight, the Flyers will have to keep Matthews as quiet as possible on the scoresheet–and avoiding the Leafs power play would be a solid start.
Projected Lineups
Philadelphia Flyers
Denis Gurianov – Sean Couturier – Travis Konecny
Tyson Foerster – Scott Laughton – Owen Tippett
Joel Farabee – Morgan Frost – Bobby Brink
Noah Cates – Ryan Poehling -Garnet Hathaway
Cam York – Travis Sanheim
Marc Staal – Ronnie Attard
Egor Zamula – Erik Johnson
Sam Ersson
(Felix Sandstrom)
Toronto Maple Leafs
Tyler Bertuzzi – Auston Matthews – William Nylander
Max Domi – John Tavares – Calle Jarnkrok
Matthew Knies – David Kampf – Bobby McMann
Pontus Holmberg – Connor Dewar – Ryan Reaves
T.J. Brodie – Jake McCabe
Morgan Rielly – Ilya Lyubushkin
Joel Edmundson – Timothy Liljegren
Ilya Samsonov
(Joseph Woll)
Gameday Tunes
Happy Kacey Musgraves release weekend to all who celebrate.
Stats via Hockey Reference
