It is another time in early May and the city of Toronto is facing an existential crisis about its hockey team. The Toronto Maple Leafs, with all their heralded players and stars and coaching staff and front office, have found themselves facing another early playoff exit after falling to the Boston Bruins in seven games.
They pushed themselves after going down three games to one in the series, and forced the final game, and even forced the precious Game 7 overtime that we all so desire for the dramatics. But, it is the Leafs, and the Bruins quickly pushed them aside and moved on to the second round.
This isn’t a Leafs blog — thank God, those are disgusting. But now our Philadelphia Flyers can possibly take advantage of a team potentially panicking and selling off one of their core members for the sake of a change of personnel to provide something different. Could we see Leafs general manager Brad Treliving making a big move because they need to do something to show that next year can be different?
All fingers are pointing to 26-year-old winger Mitch Marner as the odd man out.
With just one year remaining on his massive contract that carries a $10.9-million cap hit, and both Auston Matthews’s and William Nylander’s long-term extensions beginning next season; it just feels like Marner is going to be the scapegoat for the Leafs’ failures. Which isn’t all that incorrect to do. The hometown winger didn’t look all that engaged through the first round, scoring just one goal and three points in an albeit low-scoring first round. It was just not good enough, yet again, to have a player demand that much of the salary cap and then just disappear when it all matters.
Now every single hockey fan you talk to in Toronto is thinking about Marner being traded to spend his last year of his deal on a different team. And not just to shake things up, but as just some sort of sign of effort to improve the on-ice team. Hell, they already got rid of the head coach after firing Sheldon Keefe on Thursday and now their eyes have gone towards the roster with Marner being certainly the most likely to go.
But that’s enough about that stinky team up north and their maligned talents. The big question simply is: Can the Philadelphia Flyers hockey club take advantage of the Leafs potentially selling low on an All-Star talent because they determined they need to shuffle the roster around?
Before getting into the mean and old details of contract situations and if acquiring a player in Marner’s situation even makes sense for the Flyers right now, it’s important to understand just what the player could bring to the table.
In case you really do not care about hockey in Toronto, it’s important to note that Marner has scored 91 goals and 281 points while averaging just over 21 minutes a game, in 221 games through the last three seasons. Just putting it bluntly: That is a whole lot of points while playing at the top of the lineup on one of the best teams in hockey. And he kind of does it all. Marner has been an All-Star multiple times while also receiving Selke Trophy votes through his last five seasons and will probably get at least one for his efforts this past campaign.
He has been in charge of killing penalties while also being a leader on the power play and been part of one of the best top-line combinations with Matthews. It’s kind of easy to just chalk Marner up as being one of the NHL’s elite talents, but by going further, just how much of his production is solely on him?
Thanks to our pal Micah over at HockeyViz, we can get a little bit of a clearer picture when it comes to Marner’s isolated impact. Essentially, Marner doesn’t actually really drive offense at 5-on-5, but is an absolute demon when it comes to the power play, is solidly above-average shorthanded and at 5-on-5 defense. His finishing is better than most and his playmaking is probably the best aspect of his entire game. He is just an all-around talent that is kind of rare these days.
And if non-stellar even-strength offense scares you off, it’s just easy to see that this was a down year for him statistically. Using the HockeyViz metric of sG metric, that is more of a predictor of “synthetic goals” as a basic WAR/GAR stat that is more reflective of the past — big phrases coming from a dumb man (me) — this past season is just going to an average level.
While we aren’t shocked and amazed by Marner this season, it’s still what should be considered as a very-good second-line forward or a below-average top-line producer. And that is his lowest level of production since his rookie year. He has been a first-line or elite player for the vast majority of his career. And with those points and minutes and just the general reputation of being an assist wizard, Marner just appears to be all wrapped up as a very good player. So, just ignore all of those Leafs fans that want to spill his blood because he didn’t have a very good seven-game stint in the playoffs.
But, would it make sense for the Flyers to really try and get this sort of player and talent?
Obviously, the overbearing context of all of this is that in this scenario, the Flyers would be acquiring a very good player who could leave in free agency next summer while the hockey team itself is not very good. That doesn’t usually spell success for some teams, even if they get more commitment. Johnny Gaudreau didn’t make the Columbus Blue Jackets a good team, Erik Karlsson was still on a Pittsburgh Penguins team that didn’t make the playoffs — it’s usually not just up to one player to push the team from below-average to actually good.
Knowing this, or at least acknowledging some recent examples of one player not suddenly making a world of difference for the acquiring team, kind of makes it hard to imagine the Flyers really going after Marner in a trade situation. As a free agent? They probably should get at least involved, but would it be reasonable to spend assets to get just one single year guaranteed? And especially when it’s a player that is currently taking up $10.9 million of the cap space and will certainly not be taking a pay cut if the Flyers want to keep him around.
But honestly, that’s a whole lot of stuff to worry about later. If the Toronto Maple Leafs want to give up one of their core players for not true value — first thing that comes to mind is a first-round pick and a decent prospect like Oliver Bonk or something — then theoretically, every single team should be lining up at Brad Treliving’s door, right? To get a player like Marner for even just a year could mean a lot, and then to most likely keep him around because hockey players love to stay where they are, feels like a no-brainer. Even for a team like the Flyers.
Now it is totally understandable if you hate the idea of the Flyers trading away picks and/or prospects in the name of getting just one guaranteed year of a very good player. But isn’t the whole idea of this rebuild, and the main thing that we want to scream at our screens about whenever we see the Flyers’ power play step on the ice, is that this team needs more top-end players? (And the Leafs might not even want prospects, but instead a roster player, which is fine.) Marner is one of those players. He can’t do everything and isn’t a world-beater like his potentially former teammate Auston Matthews or Nathan MacKinnon, but he is certainly a top-15 winger in the league, if we want to put a number to it. The Flyers haven’t had one of the NHL’s best players in their position since Claude Giroux, and before that, in all seriousness, it was probably Eric Lindros or John LeClair.
And beyond just the idea that the Flyers will finally be getting an elite talent on their roster once again, getting Marner still somewhat fits with the timeline. This isn’t a free agent in his early-30s. Marner just turned 27 years old and probably has the longevity of someone to play into his mid-30s at a high production rate.
Acquiring Marner this summer wouldn’t be Danny Briere and the Flyers’ front office waiving the flag and standing in front of a massive banner that reads “Rebuild Complete” on it. It would signal that this team is trying to take advantage of teams wanting to trade away good players because of a difficult situation they are in. They are most likely weighing every single option to make this team better and swooping in to take Marner from Toronto just feels like something that could be completely worth it in the end.
The rebuild will not be done but the foundation could be even stronger. A foundation that could have Marner leading all the young forwards like Owen Tippett, Tyson Foerster, and Joel Farabee, to the next level.
Of course, if the asking price is insanely high and it doesn’t make sense for the Flyers to part ways with their 12th overall selection and someone like a Farabee or Cam York, then this entire thing is null and void. But if the Leafs want to play ball, and the Flyers can sweet talk their way into really hyping up Scott Laughton and Rasmus Ristolainen as difference makers in Toronto, then we certainly wouldn’t complain.
