Philadelphia Flyers Top 25 Under 25: How we voted

When we began our 25 Under 25 ranking this year, the prompt was rooted in “a player\'s value to the franchise at this current point in time, given where the franchise is (i.e. knowing they are rebuilding and what their stock of assets is).” Some of us have different opinions about what constitutes “value,” so we thought it’d be a good idea for a couple of us to break down why we voted the way we did and–in the interest of transparency–share the complete ballots of how we voted. Consider this a chance for our writers to explain the reasoning behind their choices, acknowledge any glaring omissions, and go to bat for prospects they’re excited about.

Also, you in the comments have a chance to dunk on us (nicely) and share your own rankings.

Joe D: In my ranking, I looked at five major factors to assess the value of the Flyers’ prospects. In order of importance, they were: age, ceiling, position, longevity (will their game hold up long term?), and potential trade return. That last one is for the players that won’t be on the 25U25 list next year–a consideration that they may not be a part of the next contending Flyers team if the rebuild takes longer than expected, and what assets they could bring back to speed the process. It’s why I’m high on Noah Cates (whose game looks like it’ll age well, is a defensive forward the Flyers otherwise lack, and has lineup versatility), a bit lower on Owen Tippett (his age and style of play could drop off in a couple years) and way lower on Morgan Frost, who I’m not yet convinced is anything more than an empty-calorie third line scorer that are a dime a dozen in the league. Tippett, then, with top-six wing potential and an arbitration eligible RFA at the end of the season, has far more value in my eyes.

I’m also apparently a heartless bastard, who was the lone voter not to include Zayde Wisdom. He looked good in the rookie games, but I’m still not convinced he’s got an NHL career ahead of him. Other long-time prospects that didn’t register for me were Olle Lyckselle and Samu Tuomaala, but I’m clearly very high on Devin Kaplan–I see him as a younger, less injury prone Wade Allison if he hits, and at 19 he’s got some time to prove it. I’m also a big believer in Oliver Bonk’s upside, and rated him a bit higher than others as a result. The secret sixth assessment factor was “vibes,” and I get good vibes from Kaplan and Bonk.

Mike D: My practice here with T25U25 is to find a balance between rewarding potential vs. reality, and that’s not always easy to do. To me there’s always value in essentially knowing what a player is going to be — call this the Robert Hagg — as in, you know they’re never going to be an All-Star but they’re objectively going to be an NHL player. Weighing that against a player that theoretically could be an NHL player and has the skillset but maybe has been hurt or had development challenges outside their control — thinking like a Jay O’Brien — also has to garner some attention as well. My aim is to give consideration to both ends of the spectrum and that’s how I arrive at my rankings each iteration.

Thomas: The main thought I had while filling out my ballot for this year’s Top 25 Under 25 was balance. I tried to weigh out the potential of some players to what some others have already achieved. Even before I started, I recognized that that might lead to some not very satisfying picks like getting the kids that were just drafted high up in the ranking.

Well, fortunately, my finished ballot wasn’t very controversial. I kept just-drafted and low-ceiling players like Ethan Samson and Denver Barkey towards the bottom, had the experienced young players in the top-15 like Owen Tippett and Morgan Frost, and then had the typical players at the top. The very tippy top was where I probably diverted from the pack – just ever so slightly. The top-three was an assumed consensus, but I ordered it this way: Cutter Gauthier first, Cam York second, Matvei Michkov third. Gauthier has it all, for me, and has played against some of the best players in the world at the World Championships. York is already a good NHL player, and Michkov has sky-high potential but we still have to see a little bit more. That’s just me.

Maddie: For starters, the big thing that I try to avoid with these rankings, for myself at least, is recency bias. I know it’s really easy to get enamored of the shiny new toy, if you will, but I tend to take a more cautious approach with the new prospects, which is why you might find them a bit lower on my list, there’s a ceiling to how highly I feel comfortable ranking them until after we’re a bit removed from the draft year (and why I personally couldn’t justify ranking Michkov higher than 3rd. Just need to see a bit more!). And then as we move towards the top of the list, NHL experience is given some weight – but not too much, because as we’ve seen, just because a GM decides that a player should be getting NHL games doesn’t mean that they… actually should. So upside, then, is weighed even more heavily. This all feels a little imprecise when spelled out, but I promise it all makes sense to me when I’m sitting down to make a ranking. Mostly.

Kelly : My 25U25 ranking strategy is, as I’ve said before, amorphous. I don’t do stats, really. I definitely don’t have the time to watch anyone not in the AHL or NHL play, so I don’t have much of an eye test for a lot of these kids either. So what do I have? Secondhand information from people I trust and/or know are smarter than me (Hi Charles) and, most importantly, vibes. Vibes cannot really be defined in any situation, but here I think they’re most accurately described as a gut feeling I have about the kid, what I think his impact would be on the team, and when that impact will actually be a real thing. So let’s talk about my most bonkers vote, Matvei Michkov at #10. Do I think there are nine players with raw talent better than Michkov’s? Absolutely not. Do I think there are nine players whose potential impact is greater than Michkov’s? Also no. But I do think that there are nine players who, right now, today, are of more tangible value to the organization than our shiny new superstar in the making. I ranked Owen Tippett first. Is that weird? Absolutely. Am I asking myself “Kelly, what were you thinking when you did this?” Yes, I do that every year. Past Kelly is an enigma to me. But right now, Owen Tippett is making strides toward being one of the best goal scorers on this team. He’s actually on the team right now, which, you know, helps. If the Flyers are going to be a contender when Michkov is theoretically here, it can’t just be him. We’ll need a guy like Tippett to be in the “Giroux” role (this is not me comparing these two as players, so no need to correct me). A guy that’s more of a vet that is still a big-time contributor. If Tippett continues to improve like he did last year, he could be that guy. Also I have a very real fear that Matvei Michkov will also end up in Siberia. Go ahead, roast me.

The Ballot Breakdown

Talking Points